Start with the official calendar, not a social-media countdown
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes official schedules for CPI and the Employment Situation. Times are stated in Eastern Time and may be updated. BLS also offers an iCalendar subscription.
The Federal Reserve publishes FOMC dates, statements, projections and minutes on its own calendar. The FOMC has eight scheduled meetings per year, and minutes for regular meetings are released three weeks after the decision. Your plan therefore needs the exact publication, not just the meeting date.
Time zones are part of the risk
Eastern Time does not keep the same offset to Europe all year. The U.S. and Europe change daylight-saving time on different weekends. A trader who permanently stores “14:30 German time” can be one hour late during transition weeks.
Store events with the America/New_York time zone and convert them only for display. An event tag should record source, reference period and the exact UTC timestamp—not just “CPI.”
Calendar ruleDo not carry a fixed local time forward from memory. Verify the current official Eastern Time release.
Make three decisions before the release
First: does your playbook allow an open position through the event? Second: what maximum loss remains acceptable if execution is worse than normal? Third: what must price show after the release before a new entry is allowed?
A stop does not guarantee a specific fill in a fast market. “Same stop, same size” is therefore not a complete risk rule. If event risk cannot be quantified, a trader can stay flat, reduce size or wait for a defined stabilization condition.
| Mode | Before release | Condition afterward |
|---|---|---|
| Flat | No open position | Trade only after a fresh setup |
| Reduced | Smaller predefined size | No spontaneous adding |
| Observe | No execution planned | Collect data for later reviews |
Trade the reaction, not your interpretation of the headline
A stronger or weaker print does not mechanically determine the direction of an index future. Positioning, revisions, subcomponents and expectations already priced into the market can dominate the first reaction. A fast headline interpretation is not a complete entry model.
Define observable conditions instead: acceptance above a level, a pullback into the initial impulse, a second break with participation or a full skip when spreads are wide. The rule must exist before the number, not be invented afterward.
- Do not derive direction from the consensus surprise alone.
- Do not relabel the first spike as a clean setup afterward.
- Record spread, slippage and actual fill.
- Treat the FOMC statement and press conference as separate phases.
- A missed event is not a missed trading day.
Separate event effects from execution mistakes in the review
Compare event trades only within the same event type, instrument and mode. A pre-release CPI trade is not the same sample as an FOMC press-conference trade. Record whether the planned wait, maximum size and entry condition were respected.
Then review net P&L, MAE, MFE, slippage, holding time and rule adherence. Five profitable news trades do not establish an edge. They are five outcomes under unusual liquidity conditions.
Sources and further reading
Release schedules can change. Always use current BLS and Federal Reserve calendars on the trading day. This article addresses risk planning, not a recommendation to trade news.